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Do you support Japan in this issue, or agaisnt it?
Yes, let Japan be one of them.
28%
[ 6 ]
No, no way it can become one!
38%
[ 8 ]
Don't care.
33%
[ 7 ]
Total Votes : 21
Author
Message
zbeeblebrox Heimin (Commoner)
Joined: Jun 27, 2005 Posts: 75 Location: fairfield CA
Posted: Sun Jul 24, 2005 6:44 pm Post subject:
well i agree pretty much with fukui. although i think china is a greater threat then you give credit for mostly because fo tiawan (i would support a war against china if they invaded tiawan). and yes having japan in the security council will change very little. but then again what does the council do now anyway. yes america puts out most of the resolutions but they are mostly going to be shot down by frace, russia and germany.(just because they dont like us, and i really dont care about that)
and im a guy, so you dont have to guess _________________ "ticking away the moments that make up a dull day. you fritter and waste the hours in an off-hand way"
oh and mind my spelling i tend to type fast.
well i agree pretty much with fukui. although i think china is a greater threat then you give credit for mostly because fo tiawan (i would support a war against china if they invaded tiawan). and yes having japan in the security council will change very little. but then again what does the council do now anyway. yes america puts out most of the resolutions but they are mostly going to be shot down by frace, russia and germany.(just because they dont like us, and i really dont care about that)
and im a guy, so you dont have to guess
Germany isn't one the permanent 5.
China's threat to the region is blown way out of proportion by most news sources. Right now, what the Chinese government is most interested in is keeping its economic growth going (starting s*** in the region is a horrible way to maintain that) in order to prevent its own internal social/economic problems from exploding into something they can't control (stuff like social mobility, class gap, etc are masked by the insane growth they've been having.) That's why the Chinese government is every bit as interested in getting Kim Jong Il to back down as the United States since an unstable region is not conducive to business. If they're ever going to annex Taiwan, it would probably be through strong economic pressure (the rest of the region hates Taiwan since it doesn't have to abide to many trade agreements signed by Asian nations.) Besides, it won't really affect the United States anyway (up until a few years ago, Taiwan was essentially a dictatorship that was propped up by good ol' Uncle Sam) since China's interest is purely economic in nature.
Joined: May 09, 2003 Posts: 170 Location: Ynys Mon
Posted: Sun Jul 24, 2005 11:16 pm Post subject:
Lysol wrote:
China's threat to the region is blown way out of proportion by most news sources. Right now, what the Chinese government is most interested in is keeping its economic growth going (starting s*** in the region is a horrible way to maintain that) in order to prevent its own internal social/economic problems from exploding into something they can't control (stuff like social mobility, class gap, etc are masked by the insane growth they've been having.) That's why the Chinese government is every bit as interested in getting Kim Jong Il to back down as the United States since an unstable region is not conducive to business. If they're ever going to annex Taiwan, it would probably be through strong economic pressure (the rest of the region hates Taiwan since it doesn't have to abide to many trade agreements signed by Asian nations.) Besides, it won't really affect the United States anyway (up until a few years ago, Taiwan was essentially a dictatorship that was propped up by good ol' Uncle Sam) since China's interest is purely economic in nature.
i'm back for procrastination period #2..
Yes, it is in China's best interest that the region remains stable. But I think you are forgetting that all it takes is for the Taiwanese president to say the magic word (independence), and war breaks out. This response to Taiwanese independence is set in stone (or the anti-secession law I should say).
It is unlikely that China will invade Taiwan unprovoked before the 2008 Olympics, but if Taiwan keeps intent on retaining the status quo for the forseeable future, then its more than likely that China will occupy some Taiwanese outlying island sooner or later to force dialogue/ or speed independence so that war can happen. Some of these outlying islands are actually very close to mainland proper; within toy-binocular distance.
I think you are right in that China will eventually annex Taiwan through economic means, but instead of annexation, let's use "re-unification" shall we? Taiwan does a whole lot of business/investment in China and China usually gives the Taiwanese special treatment as an incentive/lure. Every taiwanese knows of some friend or relative who does business in china. It is China's hope that through business, the 2 sides will become inseperable, and as taiwan is a democracy, indepence becomes less likely if business gets bigger and better. (To be honest, china is to become a democracy in 50 years time (according to them), i dont really think being part of a democratic superpower then would be such a bad idea)
to china's credit, they have a stated no first strike nuke policy, and their mandate has never been the manifest destiny of america in dominating the world.
by the by, i dont really agree with the taiwanese dictatorship being propped up by the US. Its not like the conditions were so bad that ppl constantly rioted or anything. it was mostly just political imprisonment. all the ppl that were imprisoned then, u can find today in the ruling government; the current president being the lawyer who defended many of them. i dont think that selling 2nd hand and outdated weapons to taiwan counts as proping it up. its not like china had the strength to invade taiwan and win until recent years.
Joined: Mar 28, 2005 Posts: 15 Location: somewhere i don't wanna live
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:18 pm Post subject:
what!...i totally believe china could take taiwan by invasion...and they could do it FAST as hell too...look at their population...and the large income they are getting through exportation...shit...they are the next super power...next to the US of course...but china is a powerful nation...just look at the korean war...who backed out...US...because of china's aid to the north...and i too believe it will be a while before taiwan would reunite with china...however i don't think china would ever invade....it would make them look bad to the world...so like u guys were saying they would probably have to do it by economic pressure.
Joined: Apr 30, 2005 Posts: 13130 Location: The depth of hell...
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2005 4:49 pm Post subject:
PEOPLE! THE TOPIC OF THIS THREAD IS ABOUT WHETHER JAPAN SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO JOIN THE PERMENANT SECURITY COUNSIL OF UN OR NOT!!! PLEASE, DON'T DISCUSS OTHER SUFFS LIKE CHINA OR USA OR WHATEVER!!!!
Joined: May 09, 2003 Posts: 170 Location: Ynys Mon
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2005 9:12 pm Post subject:
CGY wrote:
PEOPLE! THE TOPIC OF THIS THREAD IS ABOUT WHETHER JAPAN SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO JOIN THE PERMENANT SECURITY COUNSIL OF UN OR NOT!!! PLEASE, DON'T DISCUSS OTHER SUFFS LIKE CHINA OR USA OR WHATEVER!!!!
hahaha... calm down
the original topic has been talked to death already..
sidenote:
man, how did u manage to post over 3000 messages in 3 months?!! that means u post more in 3 days than i post in 2 years
Yes, it is in China's best interest that the region remains stable. But I think you are forgetting that all it takes is for the Taiwanese president to say the magic word (independence), and war breaks out. This response to Taiwanese independence is set in stone (or the anti-secession law I should say).
It is unlikely that China will invade Taiwan unprovoked before the 2008 Olympics, but if Taiwan keeps intent on retaining the status quo for the forseeable future, then its more than likely that China will occupy some Taiwanese outlying island sooner or later to force dialogue/ or speed independence so that war can happen. Some of these outlying islands are actually very close to mainland proper; within toy-binocular distance.
I think you are right in that China will eventually annex Taiwan through economic means, but instead of annexation, let's use "re-unification" shall we? Taiwan does a whole lot of business/investment in China and China usually gives the Taiwanese special treatment as an incentive/lure. Every taiwanese knows of some friend or relative who does business in china. It is China's hope that through business, the 2 sides will become inseperable, and as taiwan is a democracy, indepence becomes less likely if business gets bigger and better. (To be honest, china is to become a democracy in 50 years time (according to them), i dont really think being part of a democratic superpower then would be such a bad idea)
Agreeing with most of your points so far. Though the Taiwanese president may be an idiot, he's not suicidal.
Quote:
to china's credit, they have a stated no first strike nuke policy, and their mandate has never been the manifest destiny of america in dominating the world.
Really? I thought India was the only Nuclear Power in the world with a set, non-negotiable no first use policy. When I visited the Indian mission to the UN a few years ago, that's what their representative told me.
Quote:
by the by, i dont really agree with the taiwanese dictatorship being propped up by the US. Its not like the conditions were so bad that ppl constantly rioted or anything. it was mostly just political imprisonment. all the ppl that were imprisoned then, u can find today in the ruling government; the current president being the lawyer who defended many of them. i dont think that selling 2nd hand and outdated weapons to taiwan counts as proping it up. its not like china had the strength to invade taiwan and win until recent years.
righty, back to work
The conditions may have been top class, but it was still a dictatorship that received our blessing. Iraq prior to the First Gulf War was considered to be an oasis in the region. Every Western country was trying to gain a foothold in the country (yes, even the US... especially the US) and living conditions in the country were rising dramatically. Still doesn't change the fact that it was a dictatorship. Granted the Taiwanese rulers were nowhere as cruel or heavyhanded as Saddam was, but they were hardly advocates for democracy. As for 2nd hand weapons, I hardly consider F-16's to be outdated. Taiwan does have a formidable military for its size and we're its #1 benefactor.
super_smarty_pants wrote:
what!...i totally believe china could take taiwan by invasion...and they could do it FAST as hell too...look at their population...and the large income they are getting through exportation...shit...they are the next super power...next to the US of course...but china is a powerful nation...just look at the korean war...who backed out...US...because of china's aid to the north...and i too believe it will be a while before taiwan would reunite with china...however i don't think china would ever invade....it would make them look bad to the world...so like u guys were saying they would probably have to do it by economic pressure.
No, China cannot take Taiwan in its current state. They can't do it fast as hell either. In fact, if anything, the Chinese military is woefully unprepared for modern combat and the speed involved with it. Population and economic will have a great part to play in the eventual modernization of the Chinese military (actually they're trying to reduce the number of troops dramatically) into a modern fighting force, but in the near future, the Chinese military will not be a threat really since it's unable to project power. It's Air Force is large but has few modern units to use against a well equiped and trained Taiwanese Air Force. It's Navy is still what's called a Brown Water fleet and the most they can do is blockade the country, though they'll be given hell in the process. China only has 5,000 Marines.... that's hardly enough to take one beachhead, never mind an entire country that has been fortifying itself for the past 50+ years now. As for the Korean War, that's a horrible example since wars aren't fought like that anymore. There are no more mass infantry charges on set defensive lines. Wars nowadays more resembles Urban Combat. There are no set lines, the positions are ever changing and speed and positioning are essential for survival. Can China eventually reach a point where it has the military capability to take Taiwan? Yeah, probably, but I don't see it happening in the next decade or so.
Joined: May 09, 2003 Posts: 170 Location: Ynys Mon
Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 6:52 pm Post subject:
Lysol wrote:
Agreeing with most of your points so far. Though the Taiwanese president may be an idiot, he's not suicidal.
never said he was sucidal or an idiot. in fact, i respect him as a person, just not his political views. he's a self-made man.
the suicidal idiot is former president Lee who upon stepping down had a 180 degree change in his ideology. if someone like him becomes prez again, u would have war the next day.
Lysol wrote:
Really? I thought India was the only Nuclear Power in the world with a set, non-negotiable no first use policy. When I visited the Indian mission to the UN a few years ago, that's what their representative told me.
china re-iterated this policy just last week.
Lysol wrote:
The conditions may have been top class, but it was still a dictatorship that received our blessing. Iraq prior to the First Gulf War was considered to be an oasis in the region. Every Western country was trying to gain a foothold in the country (yes, even the US... especially the US) and living conditions in the country were rising dramatically. Still doesn't change the fact that it was a dictatorship. Granted the Taiwanese rulers were nowhere as cruel or heavyhanded as Saddam was, but they were hardly advocates for democracy. As for 2nd hand weapons, I hardly consider F-16's to be outdated. Taiwan does have a formidable military for its size and we're its #1 benefactor.
prior to the F-16s, the Taiwanese were flying F-5E (i think thats what they're called)... from the 60s/70s. their submarine until recent years were american leftovers from WW2. The weapons Taiwan get from US are definetly outdated from the US standpoint... but perhaps not so when compared to other places. Even the F-16s, the US only sold the ones with the least capable software.. I think there's class A, B, C or something (dunno, this is like from 10 years ago)
the term benefactor is taking it too far. this is just business as usual. Taiwan doesnt receive free $ from US like Israel. US on many occasions try to sell Taiwan things it doesnt need while not selling the stuff that Taiwan wants, that is, the stuff they know will piss off China.
Lysol wrote:
No, China cannot take Taiwan in its current state. They can't do it fast as hell either. In fact, if anything, the Chinese military is woefully unprepared for modern combat and the speed involved with it. Population and economic will have a great part to play in the eventual modernization of the Chinese military (actually they're trying to reduce the number of troops dramatically) into a modern fighting force, but in the near future, the Chinese military will not be a threat really since it's unable to project power. It's Air Force is large but has few modern units to use against a well equiped and trained Taiwanese Air Force. It's Navy is still what's called a Brown Water fleet and the most they can do is blockade the country, though they'll be given hell in the process. China only has 5,000 Marines.... that's hardly enough to take one beachhead, never mind an entire country that has been fortifying itself for the past 50+ years now. As for the Korean War, that's a horrible example since wars aren't fought like that anymore. There are no more mass infantry charges on set defensive lines. Wars nowadays more resembles Urban Combat. There are no set lines, the positions are ever changing and speed and positioning are essential for survival. Can China eventually reach a point where it has the military capability to take Taiwan? Yeah, probably, but I don't see it happening in the next decade or so.
man, I dont claim to be a military expert, and I dont read Jane's defense mag on my spare time... but from what I've read of news reports on gov/think tank assesments and stuff, certain things are not exactly as you described.
first of all, China CAN take Taiwan. Taiwan's own military estimates that it would take the US 2 weeks to respond to any call for help, and that Taiwan can barely make that 2 weeks at best. In any case, they're not optimistic.
And according to American thinktank estimates (read: American), China's military strength will surpass the US anywhere from 15 years to 20 years and up. China actually has good planes. They get most of their stock from Russia, and they've being making their own models in imitation of some of the Russian Su fighters. whatever the case, the air supremacy that Taiwan had enjoyed over the past 50 years is over. Taiwan is now at best equal with China (even with the F-16s and the Mirage fighters).
Taiwan recently finished reducing its military personnel as well. Its about reducing the numbers of useless units so that on the whole the military becomes stronger and more efficient. Same thing that China is doing.
China's invasion strategy is basically missles. missles to blockade the island from the outside, "decapitation" tactic to get rid of TW leadership, and destroying as many military assets as possible. Then urban warfare.
But trust me, the TW people wont resist much. The country is split on the re-unification issue and the last thing that chinese ppl want to do is to kill one another. People have relatives on both sides. Once China gets into TW proper, it will be over.
and of course, this is just what I think as a Taiwanese. As I said, I'm no expert on military affairs so don't take my disagreements the wrong way.
[just for interest's sake....A while ago, in the media frenzy caused by the assesment that Taiwan wouldn't last 2 weeks, a military personnel in a move to calm nerves, mentioned that Taiwan could aim missles at the three gorges dam, the destruction of which will kill millions of civilians. China responded by saying that this would be repayed by nukes.]
Joined: May 09, 2003 Posts: 170 Location: Ynys Mon
Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2005 7:30 pm Post subject:
CGY wrote:
, Taiwan is a part of China, period!
fair enough, and I would even agree with the statement to some degree.
Historically, this is definitly true. But the definition of china has been muddied. the statement should be this:
"The island of Taiwan and the mainland both belong to the one and only chinese nation in the world."
the problem of course is determining which government actually represents this one chinese nation. ppl forget that the taiwanese gov is representative of "China" (as you know it) as well. the communist party has never ruled taiwan... while the gov in taiwan ruled the mainland for many years. whatever the case, taiwan is not a 2nd hong kong, and will/ MUST sit at the negotiating table with equal weight as the mainland in re-unification.
Er my comments are directed at the original thread but yea...
I don't exactly see why Japan shouldn't be on the permanent security council. Before you all jump and kill me, you need to realize that while the japanese government has made a ton of really bad mistakes - which they haven't apologized for... they're still a huge economic power. The UN is in desperate need of funds and the japanese can supply that. Besides, the UN security council's job is to maintain peace and security. They use their power to settle disputes. Why not let Japan learn from experience.
I don't want to come off anti-american on you guys because I realize that's where a lot of you are from.. but if you use the same logic and reasoning.. American should be thrown out of the UN completely. It's not, because it's the founder and the major economic supplier.. but if you don't let Japan in because of those reasons, what right does America have to be in there?
Fair enough, America was a major player in the World Wars but they come off a lot worse than Japan. Every country glosses over their screw ups, (Japan to a more major extent than others) but what about America? They're in the UN and they've been in constant war since the UN formed. The cold war, Vietnam War.. the war right now? In fact, they've even set it up so other countries would seem like the agressors. They've blacklisted countries for being communist. They're refusal to trade with others have set them back so they can't become developing nations.
I'm not defending Japan, nor am I justifying what they did, because quite frankly the government screwed up big time, and they are being assholes about it. The fact is that, if you deny Japan entrance based on these arguments.. you've got to kick out USA and Russia too. (I didn't touch on Russia.. but.. yea.. just as bad). Japan has even de-millitarized to a far greater extent than the States.
Joined: Apr 30, 2005 Posts: 13130 Location: The depth of hell...
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2005 10:20 am Post subject:
Fukui wrote:
CGY wrote:
, Taiwan is a part of China, period!
fair enough, and I would even agree with the statement to some degree.
Historically, this is definitly true. But the definition of china has been muddied. the statement should be this:
"The island of Taiwan and the mainland both belong to the one and only chinese nation in the world."
the problem of course is determining which government actually represents this one chinese nation. ppl forget that the taiwanese gov is representative of "China" (as you know it) as well. the communist party has never ruled taiwan... while the gov in taiwan ruled the mainland for many years. whatever the case, taiwan is not a 2nd hong kong, and will/ MUST sit at the negotiating table with equal weight as the mainland in re-unification.
Well, which one represent the most population wins, and that would be the governement of mainland China.
Joined: May 09, 2003 Posts: 170 Location: Ynys Mon
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2005 4:00 pm Post subject:
CGY wrote:
Well, which one represent the most population wins, and that would be the governement of mainland China.
it does appear that way... since this world is all about economics.
here's a history lesson for ya for interest's sake as i think most posters here are quite young and may not be aware.
the permanent security consil position which the government of mainland China (Ppl's Republic of China) now holds used to belong to the Republic of China (the current gov of Taiwan). After the Republic of China got ousted to Taiwan in the late 40's, from then on to the 70's, they retained that position. Yes, a permanent security consil member with a territory about the size of lake Ontario.
It is only when countries started realizing the potential of a mainland China that they can do business with, that they pushed for the recognition of the communist gov on the mainland. The Republic of China left the UN as it looked that other nations would switch sides for their own benifit. I guess the US felt some guilt for deserting a former war ally, and that is why the Taiwan relations act was passed, ambiguosly helping to defend Taiwan.
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